I copied the following from today's post at chinaadopttalk.com (Note: RQ=Rumor Queen, the website owner). This information apparently came from delegates in the China Center of Adoption Affairs in response to questions, largely about the wait, from various adoption agency representatives during recent meetings. The news isn't good, but I think it's somewhat reliable, and at the very least it's information, which is something we're getting very little of from our agency these days. In addition to the info from the CCAA and RQ's notes, I've added a few notes of my own after the ~ sign.
1) It seems that about half of the agencies were told the wait will reach from “two to three years” and the other half were told from “two and a half to three years”. (RQ: The important number here is that they are acknowledging the wait could reach three years.)
~To clarify, this means 2-3 years from LID. Our LID is 6/23/06, so we're likely looking at another 1-2 years according to this information.
2) One agency reports the maximum wait will be 2.5 years. (RQ note: I put this in because if I don’t I’ll get 50 emails saying, “but that’s not what MY agency says”.)
3) Various delegates were asked by several people when they thought it might reach three years. No one reports receiving an answer other than one that basically said it’s hard to know or impossible to know.
4) Based on their conversations, many agencies are reporting that we’ll be at a two year wait when we finish 2007. Several are reporting it will happen before we finish 2007. Several report that the CCAA will be referring some of the December 2005 families in December 2007. (RQ note: All of these could mean something slightly different, but they all point to the same ballpark.)
~Currently, the CCAA is matching families with LID's in November 2005. So essentially the above statements mean it will take the next 6 months to finishing matching families with LID's in November and December 2005. 6 months to get through less than 2 months of LID's is really not good (the CCAA used to match 1 month of LID's per month pretty consistently). There are 7+ months between current LID's being matched (11/2005) and our LID (6/23/06)...I'd rather not do the math in this scenario.
5) The CCAA feels that in 2008 they will be back to something closer to 15 days per month. (RQ Clarification – I am reading this to say that 7 or 8 months from now they think they will be back to 15 day batches.)
~This points to a speedup, albeit a small one, in 2008. Combining this scenario with the prediction for the remainder of 2007 from #4 puts us receiving our referral in late 2008 or early 2009. And this is a good-case scenario. Ouch.
6) The CCAA is currently referring 600 to 700 babies per month. This total includes Special Needs and Non-Special Needs.
RQ: Backlog figures - Total dossiers received in 2006 (NSN and SN) were around 30,000. Total dossiers received January through May of 2007 were around 10,000.
~Apparently Chris and I chose the longest line ever for China adoption.
7) The new rules were put in place to try to bring the wait back down. The program will continue in the long term. If there were plans to stop the program they would not have bothered with the new rules.
~The aforementioned rules were implemented last month, and included such parameters as new age limits and health restrictions for adoptive parents. Fortunately, Chris and I were not impacted by the new rules.
8) If the new rules do not create the desired equilibrium, they will put more stringent rules in place.
9) Abandonments are down and domestic adoption is up, however, there are still many orphans in China who need families. The CCAA is working very hard to try to match these children with families. Please be patient as they work to find ways to make this happen.
~The IA (international adoption) community has been speculating about reported changes in the rate of abandonments and domestic adoption in China since the wait began lengthening last year. While it would be wonderful if what the CCAA is saying is true, it's difficult to believe that such dramatic changes are taking place so quickly in China. Abandonment of female infants has been going on for generations, and the changes in wait times for China adoption has happened relatively quickly. I'm sure the speculation will continue.
10) From a question of whether the problem (i.e. growing wait times) is because there are no orphans or whether there are orphans but they are not being prepared for IA, the answer was that “the problem is paper ready babies”. (RQ note: The question was asked in a longer and much more respectful way, so don’t think someone asked an offensive question here.)
~There is also a great deal of debate about this issue. To clarify, "paper ready" means that a child's dossier has been prepared and submitted to the CCAA by the orphanage in which that child resides. Apparently, this is a painstaking process, much like the paperchase process for adoptive families, and it's unclear whether the orphanages have too few staff to handle the paperwork, or whether they're just unwilling to submit it in a timely manner, or whether the CCAA has actually imposed a quota on the number of children the orphanage can submit for IA (the CCAA denies this). Every time someone argues that the "paper ready" issue is the culprit in the increasing wait times, someone else in the IA community asserts there are less children in the orphanages altogether. No one seems to know the truth.
11) Of the total number of adoptions in China, 1/5 of them are IA and the remaining 4/5 are domestic adoptions.
~This is news to everyone. My understanding is that until recently domestic adoption was relatively unheard of in China.
12) The CCAA hopes that families do not give up hope. Families waiting will get a child. They hope for patience and understanding.
There are many unanswered questions, but what is clear is that we still have a long road ahead of us in our journey to Noelle. We must turn our attention to other things, but she will keep right on growing in our hearts.
1) It seems that about half of the agencies were told the wait will reach from “two to three years” and the other half were told from “two and a half to three years”. (RQ: The important number here is that they are acknowledging the wait could reach three years.)
~To clarify, this means 2-3 years from LID. Our LID is 6/23/06, so we're likely looking at another 1-2 years according to this information.
2) One agency reports the maximum wait will be 2.5 years. (RQ note: I put this in because if I don’t I’ll get 50 emails saying, “but that’s not what MY agency says”.)
3) Various delegates were asked by several people when they thought it might reach three years. No one reports receiving an answer other than one that basically said it’s hard to know or impossible to know.
4) Based on their conversations, many agencies are reporting that we’ll be at a two year wait when we finish 2007. Several are reporting it will happen before we finish 2007. Several report that the CCAA will be referring some of the December 2005 families in December 2007. (RQ note: All of these could mean something slightly different, but they all point to the same ballpark.)
~Currently, the CCAA is matching families with LID's in November 2005. So essentially the above statements mean it will take the next 6 months to finishing matching families with LID's in November and December 2005. 6 months to get through less than 2 months of LID's is really not good (the CCAA used to match 1 month of LID's per month pretty consistently). There are 7+ months between current LID's being matched (11/2005) and our LID (6/23/06)...I'd rather not do the math in this scenario.
5) The CCAA feels that in 2008 they will be back to something closer to 15 days per month. (RQ Clarification – I am reading this to say that 7 or 8 months from now they think they will be back to 15 day batches.)
~This points to a speedup, albeit a small one, in 2008. Combining this scenario with the prediction for the remainder of 2007 from #4 puts us receiving our referral in late 2008 or early 2009. And this is a good-case scenario. Ouch.
6) The CCAA is currently referring 600 to 700 babies per month. This total includes Special Needs and Non-Special Needs.
RQ: Backlog figures - Total dossiers received in 2006 (NSN and SN) were around 30,000. Total dossiers received January through May of 2007 were around 10,000.
~Apparently Chris and I chose the longest line ever for China adoption.
7) The new rules were put in place to try to bring the wait back down. The program will continue in the long term. If there were plans to stop the program they would not have bothered with the new rules.
~The aforementioned rules were implemented last month, and included such parameters as new age limits and health restrictions for adoptive parents. Fortunately, Chris and I were not impacted by the new rules.
8) If the new rules do not create the desired equilibrium, they will put more stringent rules in place.
9) Abandonments are down and domestic adoption is up, however, there are still many orphans in China who need families. The CCAA is working very hard to try to match these children with families. Please be patient as they work to find ways to make this happen.
~The IA (international adoption) community has been speculating about reported changes in the rate of abandonments and domestic adoption in China since the wait began lengthening last year. While it would be wonderful if what the CCAA is saying is true, it's difficult to believe that such dramatic changes are taking place so quickly in China. Abandonment of female infants has been going on for generations, and the changes in wait times for China adoption has happened relatively quickly. I'm sure the speculation will continue.
10) From a question of whether the problem (i.e. growing wait times) is because there are no orphans or whether there are orphans but they are not being prepared for IA, the answer was that “the problem is paper ready babies”. (RQ note: The question was asked in a longer and much more respectful way, so don’t think someone asked an offensive question here.)
~There is also a great deal of debate about this issue. To clarify, "paper ready" means that a child's dossier has been prepared and submitted to the CCAA by the orphanage in which that child resides. Apparently, this is a painstaking process, much like the paperchase process for adoptive families, and it's unclear whether the orphanages have too few staff to handle the paperwork, or whether they're just unwilling to submit it in a timely manner, or whether the CCAA has actually imposed a quota on the number of children the orphanage can submit for IA (the CCAA denies this). Every time someone argues that the "paper ready" issue is the culprit in the increasing wait times, someone else in the IA community asserts there are less children in the orphanages altogether. No one seems to know the truth.
11) Of the total number of adoptions in China, 1/5 of them are IA and the remaining 4/5 are domestic adoptions.
~This is news to everyone. My understanding is that until recently domestic adoption was relatively unheard of in China.
12) The CCAA hopes that families do not give up hope. Families waiting will get a child. They hope for patience and understanding.
There are many unanswered questions, but what is clear is that we still have a long road ahead of us in our journey to Noelle. We must turn our attention to other things, but she will keep right on growing in our hearts.
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Rach